The day after (election YV-6)
So, coverage of the election by this blog has been light this time around. But that is no excuse to make it complete. One thing is to vote and another what happens Monday 7. Let's see.
There could be still a suspension/coup
The violence in the campaign trail with the numerous attacks on opposition politicians and the murder of at least one activist has to give us pause. The signs are clear, the regime is not going away peacefully. Still, at this late date I am not betting all of my money that elections will be actually held on Sunday. Also, I am not betting all of my money that elections will be held and results accepted. Whatever the regime chooses to do on these aspects, it will be sorry for it.
The opposition victory
This is now a given, though some disaster can still strike. At this point there is no pollster that states that the regime may win the election, even with a one seat majority. The only question here is how large the opposition win will be. On this respect I have kept updating my Excel sheet and came up on a tighter result than the first "prediction" one. I have accepted that the MUD to PSUV spread will be 10% (I resist giving it more no matter what pollsters say). I tweeted the result and the observation is that with a 10% advantage the "safe" and "leaning" MUD seats barely reach half! It will all depend on how the toss up seats go. This is a measure on how biased the electoral system is in favor or chavismo that a 10% advance barely gives the opposition a half dozen seats majority!
Recognizing victory
Let's say for the sake of the argument that the regime indeed accepts that the opposition alliance MUD wins. Will the regime accept full victory? Or will the regime subjects us to hours of delays while backroom negotiations take place so that the opposition recognizes a lower seat count in exchange of having a majority recognized? e.g. give up on a 3/5 majority in exchange of a regime recognition of a simple majority.
The week after
Depending on the shock wave of Sunday 6, it is quite possible that the regime uses what days are left from its 2010 majority to pass further laws to restrict the role of the elected National Assembly. That one may be able to shake that away but there will be a waste of time before the elected assembly can start its real job.
Miscellaneous
And of course there are all sorts of things that can go bump in the dark. For example there could be violence from the out of control "colectivos". There could be riots, hunger riots as surprisingly stores do not get food as soon as the opposition majority is proclaimed, etc, etc.
As for what happens once the opposition victory is acknowledged? Matter for another post.
There could be still a suspension/coup
The violence in the campaign trail with the numerous attacks on opposition politicians and the murder of at least one activist has to give us pause. The signs are clear, the regime is not going away peacefully. Still, at this late date I am not betting all of my money that elections will be actually held on Sunday. Also, I am not betting all of my money that elections will be held and results accepted. Whatever the regime chooses to do on these aspects, it will be sorry for it.
The opposition victory
This is now a given, though some disaster can still strike. At this point there is no pollster that states that the regime may win the election, even with a one seat majority. The only question here is how large the opposition win will be. On this respect I have kept updating my Excel sheet and came up on a tighter result than the first "prediction" one. I have accepted that the MUD to PSUV spread will be 10% (I resist giving it more no matter what pollsters say). I tweeted the result and the observation is that with a 10% advantage the "safe" and "leaning" MUD seats barely reach half! It will all depend on how the toss up seats go. This is a measure on how biased the electoral system is in favor or chavismo that a 10% advance barely gives the opposition a half dozen seats majority!
Recognizing victory
Let's say for the sake of the argument that the regime indeed accepts that the opposition alliance MUD wins. Will the regime accept full victory? Or will the regime subjects us to hours of delays while backroom negotiations take place so that the opposition recognizes a lower seat count in exchange of having a majority recognized? e.g. give up on a 3/5 majority in exchange of a regime recognition of a simple majority.
The week after
Depending on the shock wave of Sunday 6, it is quite possible that the regime uses what days are left from its 2010 majority to pass further laws to restrict the role of the elected National Assembly. That one may be able to shake that away but there will be a waste of time before the elected assembly can start its real job.
Miscellaneous
And of course there are all sorts of things that can go bump in the dark. For example there could be violence from the out of control "colectivos". There could be riots, hunger riots as surprisingly stores do not get food as soon as the opposition majority is proclaimed, etc, etc.
As for what happens once the opposition victory is acknowledged? Matter for another post.
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