Mixed bag for Central America's Northern Triangle
In many ways and like most years, 2015 was a mixed bag for Central America's Northern Triangle.
We better understand the depths of the challenges that Guatemala confronts following a series of investigations into high level functionaries engaged in corruption.
Inacif has the murder rate increasing in 2015 to 33.84 but I can't figure out how they are calculating their numbers. Fewer violent deaths and a larger population usually does not lead to a higher murder rate? We'll have to see what the PNC comes up with. I tend to look at PNC numbers as the minimum (murders) and Inacif as the maximum (violent deaths) for estimating homicides.
Things look pretty bad but there is hope following the mobilization of thousands of citizens across the political spectrum, extension of CICIG, arrests of numerous public and private officials, and election of a new president. The path ahead is fraught with danger but there's reason for optimism, no?
El Salvador had a rough, rough year with a homicide rate of over 100. Economic growth is slow and poverty worsened but there's hope that some of the country's main actors are beginning to take corruption seriously. The FMLN has no interest in UN or OAS support and hopes to right the ship on its own. The FMLN sees boogeymen around every corner. It is difficult to see 2015 as anything but negative.
Honduras is tough to figure out. I'm just not as familiar with the country as Christine Wade and the people at Honduras Culture and Politics and elsewhere. Violence remains alarming, particularly when one looks at the homicide rate. Honduras' official homicide rate finished the year around 60 but no one seems to trust government statistics. I don't think that they are denying that murders have gone down, just not as much as the government claims. Says nothing about the cause but down is down, no?
There have also been several corruption scandals involving the incumbent government of Juan Orlando Hernandez. The president is engaged in talks with the OAS that would bring international help to assist in the country's battle against organized crime and corruption. The OAS entity won't have as strong a mandate as does the CICIG in Guatemala and nobody trusts Hernandez but it is a step in the right direction in my opinion. The international community can't impose a CICIH on Honduras so it will have to agree on a MACCIH. I don't get the impression that he is going to be able to use the OAS to whitewash any crimes in which he might have been engaged, which some people seem to think, so it might not be as doomed from the start as some expect it to be.
The Honduran people spent their holidays setting fire to symbols of last year's problems.
Hopefully, there will be fewer symbols to burn in 2016.
We better understand the depths of the challenges that Guatemala confronts following a series of investigations into high level functionaries engaged in corruption.
Inacif has the murder rate increasing in 2015 to 33.84 but I can't figure out how they are calculating their numbers. Fewer violent deaths and a larger population usually does not lead to a higher murder rate? We'll have to see what the PNC comes up with. I tend to look at PNC numbers as the minimum (murders) and Inacif as the maximum (violent deaths) for estimating homicides.
Things look pretty bad but there is hope following the mobilization of thousands of citizens across the political spectrum, extension of CICIG, arrests of numerous public and private officials, and election of a new president. The path ahead is fraught with danger but there's reason for optimism, no?
El Salvador had a rough, rough year with a homicide rate of over 100. Economic growth is slow and poverty worsened but there's hope that some of the country's main actors are beginning to take corruption seriously. The FMLN has no interest in UN or OAS support and hopes to right the ship on its own. The FMLN sees boogeymen around every corner. It is difficult to see 2015 as anything but negative.
Honduras is tough to figure out. I'm just not as familiar with the country as Christine Wade and the people at Honduras Culture and Politics and elsewhere. Violence remains alarming, particularly when one looks at the homicide rate. Honduras' official homicide rate finished the year around 60 but no one seems to trust government statistics. I don't think that they are denying that murders have gone down, just not as much as the government claims. Says nothing about the cause but down is down, no?
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| AFP |
The Honduran people spent their holidays setting fire to symbols of last year's problems.
Hopefully, there will be fewer symbols to burn in 2016.
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