Climate change and Guatemala

Central America is one of the region's most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Climate vulnerability has implications for the region's economies, food insecurity of its citizens, and intra- and inter-regional migration. Nic Wirtz has a two-part series on climate change and its effects on Guatemala for Latin America Goes Global.

The first article is entitled Climate change and food security in Guatemala. What might be the consequences if the Guatemalan government and international community fail to respond effectively?

Increased poverty and rural malnutrition: Small farmers are already bearing the brunt of extreme weather patterns of flooding and droughts. Subsistence farmers will continue to suffer irregular crop yield, the loss of crops, and, ultimately, hunger. Unfortunately, the government has failed to articulate a plan to cushion those most at risk through either policy intervention or identifying target populations for assistance after extreme weather patterns.

Internal migration: Reduced crop yields will likely produce dislocation as small and subsistence farmers are forced to seek land to cultivate or employment. The result will be greater flows of migration within Guatemala and greater external migration to other Central American countries, Mexico or the United States.

Nic's second article is entitled Climate change and migration in Guatemala

The reasons why someone migrates are complex and not a spur-of-the-moment decision. The Guatemalan government categorizes at least 85% of migrants as economic migrants, and even recent in-depth investigations have oversimplified the causes of migration to economic, violence or family reunification. A correlation of events in Guatemala and migratory flows proves the complex push factors at work in why Guatemalans leave their own country.

At a cost of $7,000 to $15,000 per person, migration is not something a family enters into easily. Although there are no statistics available for internal migration in Guatemala, the three departments that see the most migration are San Marcos, Huehuetenango and Guatemala. The first two departments border Mexico, while the addition of the department of Guatemala suggests initial internal migration before attempting to migrate to the United States.

Not only is migration costly, it requires a support network from origin to point of entry. In Guatemala, it has generally been departments in the east of the country that have sent more external migrants. Those in the west are more violent but people choosing to leave do so by internally migrating.

Some good insights and recommendations. Definitely worth a read.