Morales seeks to have CICIG Commission Velasquez removed

There's quite the kerfuffle in Guatemala today as Attorney General Thelma Aldana announced that she would resign her position if President Jimmy Morales went ahead and had CICIG Commissioner Ivan Velasquez removed by United Nations Secretary General Antonio Gutérres.

CICIG has been investigating the relationship between organized crime and political parties since 2013. It delivered a damning report in 2015. And now it has its sights set on the National Convergence Front (FCN), the shell of a party that brought Morales to the presidency.

Insight Crime has translated Martín Rodríguez Pellecer's take on the situation following several interviews with high-level officials who would only speak under the condition of anonymity. According to one source,
"The dilemma of the president and some of the businessmen who illegally financed [Morales'] campaign is that they do not know if anyone has already told the authorities the method they used to circumvent the law. Given this uncertainty, until yesterday, [Morales] had chosen to try to expel Iván Velásquez. We will have to see what happens in the coming days, weeks and months," one of the sources added.
If former president Otto Perez Molina had the opportunity to travel back in time, there's no doubt that he would have let CICIG's mandate expire. He might have ended up in jail anyway but CICIG's presence made it much more likely.

President Morales can't wait for CICIG's term, or that of its commissioner, to expire. Instead, he appears interested in taking the Donald Trump approach. He was going to have the person at the forefront of the investigation into him removed from office. However, Aldana's public threat and the public reactions by the UN and Guatemalan people are going to make that painfully difficult.

It's not clear yet, but this could be an important test for the Trump administration. The Trump administration has been supportive of CICIG, so far, but conservative forces in Guatemala and in English-language US-based publications have been very critical of the institution and former US Ambassador to Guatemala Todd Robinson. They have been lobbying the Embassy and US government to back off of Morales and Guatemalan public officials.

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