Honduras: a stolen election at worst or a totally inept electoral tribunal at best
Days after Hondurans went to the polls to elect their next president, protesters took to the streets to express their anger at what appears to have been a stolen election at worst or a totally inept electoral tribunal at best. The government has since declared a 10-day curfew in effect between 6:00 pm and 6:00 am, and suspended constitutional rights.
Prior to the vote, questions swirled around the election's legitimacy. President Juan Orlando Hernandez of the National Party used a friendly Supreme Court to overcome a constitutional ban on re-election. He and his allies dominate congress, the courts, the executive branch, electoral tribunal, and armed forces. They still were not taking any chances as The Economist ran a story on how the National Party might have planned to rig the results.
However, in the days following the election, it appeared that Salvador Nasralla of the Alliance Against the Dictatorship had achieved an unexpected victory. He received congratulatory calls from other candidates. Then the computers went down and his insurmountable 5 percentage point lead disappeared.
The Alliance is still in negotiations with the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE). They are demanding a 11-point list of demands that needs to be met for them to have any confidence in the election results.
Regardless of the outcome, the presidential election was unlikely to bring about any sort of national reconciliation. The wounds of the 2009 coup and aftermath are too raw. Unless there is a clear reversal of what has transpired the last seven days, Honduras is heading to a scary place.
For better or worse, it doesn't look like the US will play much of a role in resolving the crisis.
Prior to the vote, questions swirled around the election's legitimacy. President Juan Orlando Hernandez of the National Party used a friendly Supreme Court to overcome a constitutional ban on re-election. He and his allies dominate congress, the courts, the executive branch, electoral tribunal, and armed forces. They still were not taking any chances as The Economist ran a story on how the National Party might have planned to rig the results.
However, in the days following the election, it appeared that Salvador Nasralla of the Alliance Against the Dictatorship had achieved an unexpected victory. He received congratulatory calls from other candidates. Then the computers went down and his insurmountable 5 percentage point lead disappeared.
The Alliance is still in negotiations with the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE). They are demanding a 11-point list of demands that needs to be met for them to have any confidence in the election results.
Regardless of the outcome, the presidential election was unlikely to bring about any sort of national reconciliation. The wounds of the 2009 coup and aftermath are too raw. Unless there is a clear reversal of what has transpired the last seven days, Honduras is heading to a scary place.
For better or worse, it doesn't look like the US will play much of a role in resolving the crisis.
Usually you would say something about transparency, respecting the will of the Honduran people, legitimacy, the rule of law and the democratic process, but of course not. https://t.co/3AeLdpWVkC— Mike Allison (@CentAmPolMike) December 3, 2017
The US is purposefully understaffed diplomatically (of course, we do not have a Honduran ambassador) and can barely juggle limited engagement with Mexico (trade negotiations), Cuba (rolling back Obama era reforms), and Venezuela (building on Obama era sanctions). Some of this came up during a conversation I had with the Financial Times late last week about the regional and historical context about what is currently happening in Honduras (See Honduras crisis shines spotlight on Central America’s problems).
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