Loss of TPS might move El Salvador to the left

Jesse Acevedo published a post in the Monkey Cage several weeks ago that asked What will happen to El Salvador when the U.S. ends the protected status of Salvadoran immigrants? Acevedo argues that Salvadorans and citizens of other countries who lose remittances with the loss of TPS are likely to demand greater public services from their government.

Historically, remittance recipients used the cash inflows to satisfy their family's basic needs. As a result, they did not put much pressure on the government to redistribute resources. Governments also used remittances to their advantage as they could use it as an excuse to under-invest in their people. However, the Great Recession caused a change in citizen attitudes.

Before 2009, remittance recipients were 2 percent less likely to support redistribution than non-recipients. During the period of decline, remittance recipients began to show slightly greater support for redistribution than non-recipients.

By the time remittances recovered to pre-crisis levels in 2012, recipients became nearly 5 percent more likely to support redistribution. Even in 2014, five years after the recession, recipients continued to favor redistribution. The effect was strongest among remittance recipients without employment — those whose finances would be more sensitive to the drop in remittances from the United States.

Overall, it's tough to see how the loss of $1-2 billion in remittances will be good for El Salvador. However, with the people behind them, perhaps the FMLN will be more successful pressuring other political parties to support increased health and education investment. That, combined with other research that indicates Salvadorans who receive remittances tend to be more conservative could change future political preferences in the country.