El Salvador to recognize China

President Salvador Sanchez Ceren announced that El Salvador was severing ties with Taiwan and establishing diplomatic relation with China. When President Mauricio Funes was elected in 2009, he re-established the country's ties with Cuba. It wouldn't have been surprising for him to switch recognition from Taiwan to China but, instead, he did nothing and there was little change from ARENA to FMLN governance. Times have now changed.

According to Sanchez Ceren, “We are convinced this is a step in the right direction that corresponds to the principles of international law of international relations and the inevitable trends of our time.”

Taiwan on the other hand claims that El Salvador broke off relations with the country in part because they would not fund a large infrastructure project (Puerto de la Union) or the FMLN's presidential campaign.

EE.UU está analizando la decisión de #ElSalvador. Es preocupante por muchas razones, entre las que se incluye romper una relación de más de 80 años con #Taiwán. Sin duda, esto impactará nuestra relación con el gobierno. Seguimos apoyando al pueblo salvadoreño.

— Jean Manes (@USAmbSV) August 21, 2018

The U.S. response to #Panama & #DominicanRepublic switching from #Taiwan to #China is NOT the way we will react if #ElSalvador does the same. If they do this I will have no choice but to immediately begin work to end their funding & remove them from #AllianceForProsperity plan.

— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) August 20, 2018

With approximately 90 percent of the world's countries having diplomatic relations with China, for some reason United States officials are taking this one personally and are gearing up to punish El Salvador for its sovereign decision. I'm not sure how successful the Alliance for Prosperity has been but threatening to cut funding for El Salvador because it recognized China seems to be counterproductive. The Alliance for Prosperity is designed, in theory, to reduce irregular immigration from El Salvador to the United States. Removing El Salvador from the partnership does nothing to advance our interests in the region. And I can't see El Salvador changing its mind about China because of the Alliance for Prosperity.

If you wanted to send a message to El Salvador, I would have probably connected sanctions to corruption scandals involving the last two presidents. Saca and Funes are alleged to have stolen $700 million or so as president. I'd also be more worried about the quid pro quo El Salvador was looking for from Taiwan rather than the act of switching diplomatic recognition itself.