Three weeks to civic joy in Guatemala
Four years ago I wrote that Guatemalans were unhappy with their presidential candidates. Both Otto Perez Molina and Manuel Baldizon had enough skeletons in their closets that I thought they were going to be targets of CICIG investigations. Heck, General Perez was one of the reasons why CICIG was created in the first place. I'm surprised that CICIG and the MP's office have been as successful as they have been given the staunch opposition from the country's main political actors.
The 2011 election was a wild one. Sandra Torres de Colom and Alvaro Colom divorced so that she could run for president. That didn't happen. The former dictator's daughter, Zury Rios Montt, dropped out of the race because she had no money and no support. Violence and characterized the campaign, although the number of politically-motivated deaths during the campaign was lower than previous years (as far as we could tell). In the end, Baldizon and Perez advanced to a second round where they tried to out-mano dura each other. Baldizon the plagiarist went for the ever popular "let's televise executions." Fortunately (?), the hard-line former general who liked to go around inflating crime statistics, won.
Three of those candidates are back in 2015. Baldizon of LIDER leads the pack and is the favorite to walk away the winner, most likely in a second round. Zury RiosMontt is back as well, hoping to run on her father's good name. Torres is hoping that the countryside will remember the social programs that she oversaw during her husband's presidency. She is fighting for second place against TV personality and political newcomer Jimmy Morales, who may or may not be a breath of fresh air.
The incumbent party is in disarray, as it should be following several corruption scandals. Its implosion means that Guatemala will once again elect a candidate from a new political party to be president (PDC, MAS, none, PAN, FRG, GANA, UNE, PP). My hopes for a relatively stable party system built around a center-left UNE option and a center-right PP option was just a pipe dream.
This year's elections will be defined by corruption scandals, campaign finance irregularities, and total disenchantment with the political process. I usually don't care who wins the elections in Central America. I simply want whomever the people of the region select as president leaves the country in a better position four or five years later. However, I am really hoping that Baldizon loses. I don't know enough about Morales and while I don't feel good voting for Torres, especially after the circus she put on during the last campaign, I guess I am going with her. She probably won't stand in the way of the people of Guatemala, the MP's office and CICIG in trying to re-capture the democratic process as much as the other candidates will.
The 2011 election was a wild one. Sandra Torres de Colom and Alvaro Colom divorced so that she could run for president. That didn't happen. The former dictator's daughter, Zury Rios Montt, dropped out of the race because she had no money and no support. Violence and characterized the campaign, although the number of politically-motivated deaths during the campaign was lower than previous years (as far as we could tell). In the end, Baldizon and Perez advanced to a second round where they tried to out-mano dura each other. Baldizon the plagiarist went for the ever popular "let's televise executions." Fortunately (?), the hard-line former general who liked to go around inflating crime statistics, won.
Three of those candidates are back in 2015. Baldizon of LIDER leads the pack and is the favorite to walk away the winner, most likely in a second round. Zury Rios
The incumbent party is in disarray, as it should be following several corruption scandals. Its implosion means that Guatemala will once again elect a candidate from a new political party to be president (PDC, MAS, none, PAN, FRG, GANA, UNE, PP). My hopes for a relatively stable party system built around a center-left UNE option and a center-right PP option was just a pipe dream.
This year's elections will be defined by corruption scandals, campaign finance irregularities, and total disenchantment with the political process. I usually don't care who wins the elections in Central America. I simply want whomever the people of the region select as president leaves the country in a better position four or five years later. However, I am really hoping that Baldizon loses. I don't know enough about Morales and while I don't feel good voting for Torres, especially after the circus she put on during the last campaign, I guess I am going with her. She probably won't stand in the way of the people of Guatemala, the MP's office and CICIG in trying to re-capture the democratic process as much as the other candidates will.
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