Unfulfilled expectations in Guatemala
Mac Margolis takes a brief look at the situation in Guatemala for Bloomberg View.
The protests in Guatemala have occurred following five years of positive economic growth (actually positive going back to at least 2005) and decreasing homicide rates.
Overall Latin American economic growth rates have been trending downwards, but that hasn't been the case for Guatemala. I've argued to reporters that the protests have come amidst a period of unfulfilled expectations. Economic growth has improved and, at least as measured by homicide rates, security has improved. Yet, the daily lives of Guatemalans have not. Why haven't the day-to-day lives of more Guatemalans not improved these last five years?
In many ways, it is the excessive corruption of Perez Molina and his cronies, a corruption that comes on the heels of years of corrupt and self-serving governments..
But this nation of 14.6 million people, with Central America's richest economy, seems indisposed to wait out the political calendar, much less look the other way at thieves in palaces. And the civic choler is good news in a region where corruption scandals on top of a sharp economic downturn are putting parlous democracies to the test.
At the height of the commodities bonanza, Latin Americans seemed willing to shrug at officials with sticky hands. Now tolerance is thinning as regional gross domestic product is expected to expand by just 0.4 percent this year, the worst performance since 2009.This isn't the best way to view Guatemala or to introduce readers to the region via Guatemala. Guatemala's GDP has grown steadily since 2009, when it grew 0.5% compared to the regional contraction of -1.7%. Since then, Guatemala's GDP has grown 2.9% (2010), 4.2% (2011), 3.1% (2012), 3.7% (2013), and 4.2% (2014).
The protests in Guatemala have occurred following five years of positive economic growth (actually positive going back to at least 2005) and decreasing homicide rates.
Overall Latin American economic growth rates have been trending downwards, but that hasn't been the case for Guatemala. I've argued to reporters that the protests have come amidst a period of unfulfilled expectations. Economic growth has improved and, at least as measured by homicide rates, security has improved. Yet, the daily lives of Guatemalans have not. Why haven't the day-to-day lives of more Guatemalans not improved these last five years?
In many ways, it is the excessive corruption of Perez Molina and his cronies, a corruption that comes on the heels of years of corrupt and self-serving governments..
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