Oligarchy in Retreat: Guatemala’s Election

The Council on Hemispheric Affairs takes a look at the Oligarchy in Retreat: Guatemala’s Election.

Credit for the removal of Molina’s impunity and his subsequent arrest, has been most markedly handed to the International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG), as well as the international actors who financially and logistically back the commission through the United Nations. The CICIG began its investigation into corruption and impunity within the Guatemalan state in September 2007. While due credit is owed to the relentless work done by the CICIG to root out corruption and impunity among Guatemalan officials, who for the previous half-century had been considered “untouchable,” the role of popular mobilization should not be understated.

The protests that have emerged in recent months have put to test the democratic strength of Guatemala’s institutions. Moreover, the success of these protests represents one of the most significant inroads for the left in Guatemala, and the northern triangle as a whole, since the U.S.-backed coup of the democratically elected President Jacobo Arbenz in 1954. The question that remains in the wake of the excitement that filled the streets of Guatemala following the resignation of Molina, is whether or not this mobilization directed at unseating Molina—dubbed by some media outlets the “Central American Spring”—will continue to press for further reforms.

As the presidential electoral process continues and the country prepares for a new leader, it is important to understand what hangs in the balance of this uncertainty. Acknowledging how the historic memory of civil war informs the current dynamics sprouting from the social and political landscape is key in contextualizing the importance of Guatemala’s elections.

I'd say that the people that demonstrated in the streets were clearly important to supporting CICIG's legal moves against Guatemalan political and economic elite. However, the idea that Winaq or the URNG is going to lead the charge against impunity going forward is....highly unlikely.

There are some quotes from me near the end as well.