100 days of MUD
I suppose that the tradition of the cabalistic "first hundred days/measures/laws" comes from the first famous 100 days, the ones of Napoleon return to Elba which ended in Waterloo. The regime may want to ponder about that history tidbit, the more so that Waterloo bicentennial was celebrated earlier this year.
Last night we had the distinct feeling that Maduro and Cabello were operating as if they had decided for a speedy return from Elba, ignoring the trashing they got 2 days earlier. Napoleon at least spent enough tine in Elba to mark it for history. And while they plan a crash return/hold to power the rest of the world will take 100 days to find a definite way to get rid of the bolivarian monstrosity. Indeed, what Napoleon achieved in 100 days was the lost of any French recovery at the Vienna meeting, where Talleyrand was surprisingly achieving better terms than expected. After Waterloo not even Talleyrand could do a thing.
What can the opposition do? It all depends whether the outburst of Maduro and Cabello are a representation of chavismo or their desperate cry as they sense chavismo maybe willing to sacrifice them. For the following discussion let's assume that they represent chavismo (the other case is easier, these anti Maduro factions will quickly come to the forefront and we'll deal with them as constructively as possible).
The 100 days (or 30 or 50, does not really matter) started ticking yesterday December 8 and thus the resolution of the conflict is for, at the latest, early March. By then the economic and humanitarian crisis will have swept all parties anyway.
My suggestion for the opposition is very simple, find ways to explain to the country that the economy is a matter for the government to resolve and that the new Assembly will kindly oblige by reviewing speedily any proposal sent to them. Period. (1)
For that communication offensive the new Assembly can do the following: the chair can call for cadenas (mandatory broadcasts), there are precedents; the CONATEL law that regulates communications can be modified on the first days of the tenure so that the remaining subjugated but still alive media can unshackle their transmissions from self censorship as the regulatory agency will not be able to fine them anymore for thought "crimes". Plus other measures like recovering ANTV that will take more time.
Along leaving the dead economy at the regime door step the new Assembly should be sworn in with already a few law projects to recover intuitions and civil rights, forgetting about revenge or control. This can come only later, once the pulse between the executive and legislative power reaches an equilibrium of sorts. In no particular order since that one must be decided as events unfold, the Assembly should be sworn in with the following measures ready to go: amnesty law; call for nominations for a new CNE; revision of law that assigns a mandatory part of the nation's income to the provinces; suspend for a year any bill for weapon procurement; suspend punitive laws like SUNDEE that will have by itself already positive effects on the economy.
The regime will of course oppose every single one but it will be difficult for it to defend such opposition on public opinion as it will point to its unfairness, corruption, abuse and incompetence, reasons why people voted massively against the regime. And if the regime opposition becomes too vehement then there will be the excuse for the Assembly to call for a recall election or a constituent assembly. The 100 days will end there, in a food crisis and a collapse of the regime.
I suspect that there will be enough folks inside chavismo that will not want to sink with Maduro and Cabello and that before the 100 days are over they will have either started negotiations or asked Maduro to resign.
------
1) regular readers will remember that I wrote over the week end a decalogue which is still valid, what I am writing above being more of a question of pace as the regime is acting foolishly.
Last night we had the distinct feeling that Maduro and Cabello were operating as if they had decided for a speedy return from Elba, ignoring the trashing they got 2 days earlier. Napoleon at least spent enough tine in Elba to mark it for history. And while they plan a crash return/hold to power the rest of the world will take 100 days to find a definite way to get rid of the bolivarian monstrosity. Indeed, what Napoleon achieved in 100 days was the lost of any French recovery at the Vienna meeting, where Talleyrand was surprisingly achieving better terms than expected. After Waterloo not even Talleyrand could do a thing.
What can the opposition do? It all depends whether the outburst of Maduro and Cabello are a representation of chavismo or their desperate cry as they sense chavismo maybe willing to sacrifice them. For the following discussion let's assume that they represent chavismo (the other case is easier, these anti Maduro factions will quickly come to the forefront and we'll deal with them as constructively as possible).
The 100 days (or 30 or 50, does not really matter) started ticking yesterday December 8 and thus the resolution of the conflict is for, at the latest, early March. By then the economic and humanitarian crisis will have swept all parties anyway.
My suggestion for the opposition is very simple, find ways to explain to the country that the economy is a matter for the government to resolve and that the new Assembly will kindly oblige by reviewing speedily any proposal sent to them. Period. (1)
For that communication offensive the new Assembly can do the following: the chair can call for cadenas (mandatory broadcasts), there are precedents; the CONATEL law that regulates communications can be modified on the first days of the tenure so that the remaining subjugated but still alive media can unshackle their transmissions from self censorship as the regulatory agency will not be able to fine them anymore for thought "crimes". Plus other measures like recovering ANTV that will take more time.
Along leaving the dead economy at the regime door step the new Assembly should be sworn in with already a few law projects to recover intuitions and civil rights, forgetting about revenge or control. This can come only later, once the pulse between the executive and legislative power reaches an equilibrium of sorts. In no particular order since that one must be decided as events unfold, the Assembly should be sworn in with the following measures ready to go: amnesty law; call for nominations for a new CNE; revision of law that assigns a mandatory part of the nation's income to the provinces; suspend for a year any bill for weapon procurement; suspend punitive laws like SUNDEE that will have by itself already positive effects on the economy.
The regime will of course oppose every single one but it will be difficult for it to defend such opposition on public opinion as it will point to its unfairness, corruption, abuse and incompetence, reasons why people voted massively against the regime. And if the regime opposition becomes too vehement then there will be the excuse for the Assembly to call for a recall election or a constituent assembly. The 100 days will end there, in a food crisis and a collapse of the regime.
I suspect that there will be enough folks inside chavismo that will not want to sink with Maduro and Cabello and that before the 100 days are over they will have either started negotiations or asked Maduro to resign.
------
1) regular readers will remember that I wrote over the week end a decalogue which is still valid, what I am writing above being more of a question of pace as the regime is acting foolishly.
Post a Comment