Musings on the 0,6666666666.... An Irrational or Transcendental number?
As I type, the opposition claims it got 2/3 of the Assembly and the CNE still tries to find ways to deny that number. But in a way it does not matter much, the psychological effect is there, and what matters more is that the vote against the current regime is 2 million+ votes. That is right, the MUD got more than 2 million votes that the PSUV alliance (GPP). The other candidates, I think , did not go much more than 1%, making this election the most polarized in our history (Chavez presidential victories aside but they were of a different nature, outright plebiscites on a charismatic leader).
By any measure the electoral result is surprising and transcendental. The Maduro's regime has been irremediably trashed, but not ousted. And that is were the key importance of the 2 million vote resides. That the regime conceded, that it was forced to by the army to do so is not democracy. With 2 million votes ahead the armed forces were not going to support a fraud because they would have had the task to kill what was needed to kill to save the regime. In the XXI century such crimes do not prescribe and General Padrino merely voiced the concerns of the bulk of the Army: "this disaster is of the politician's own making and there is no reason why we should take the hit for that". That the army benefited immensely from the regime is, in its eyes, circumstantial: the laws and lack of supervision that allowed such corruption were of the making of the politicians.
To be or not to be sanguine about a 2/3 Assembly majority? Well, for starters, the gerrymandering operated in reverse once a threshold had been reached. Also, that 2 million surprise did not follow what had been taking place slowly: disgruntled chavistas that abstain an election or two until their conscience finally brings them to the other side. This time around too many chavistas jumped across the line outright. Too many I write because such shifts can be go back as fast as they came in. thus the first consideration on sanguinity: that 2/3 is an ephemeral, irrational result that we should not build much on it. Speaking of constitution change right now, in the face of an economic blow out is, well, maybe unwise.
The second factor on sanguinity is the reaction of the regime. All that has been written before, at least on this blog, is still valid. They are a bunch of thugs focused on personal power and wealth. That they retreated Sunday is due to the only language thugs understand: force. 2 million + vote and the refusal of the army to go along with a fraud that could not be covered up in thick make up is a language they understand. The democratic language that people got tired of them and demand at the very least an aggiornamento of their objectives is a message that so far does not seem to have reached the guilt cortex area of Maduro, Cabello, Rodriguez and most heavy weights of the regime.
I allow myself to think that a 2/3 majority will scare the beejeezuzz of these thugs in charge and push them away of any possible transition. For the opposition to defend and assume the 0,666666... means that it has to be ready to face conflict much sooner than expected. not that a 3/5 majority would be pelasing tot he regime, but it makes negotiations easier to come along.
Let's not forget one thing: there is an economy blow up coming. What we have seen in 2015 is nothing. If we do not want to starve in 2016 or die of fever because we do not even aspirin we are going to have to go hat in hand for money. The only one left that can bail us out is the IMF and there is a need to convince the executive power in the hands of chavismo to accept that reality. Imposing it just because we have a 2/3 majority is not going to do.
To close this, a personal anecdote. The cleaning lady at home came back today from having gone to vote in her village. She has been always anti Chavez even though her village has voted 80% for Chavez (it went down to 62% Sunday...). She was happy. She hopes that the new National Assembly is going to arrange things quickly because she is sick and tired of the long lines. Talking to her I realized, to my great horror, that she has no clue as to what a National Assembly job is. For her, the N.A. is kind of a guardian put in place to replace Maduro at the helm, or something like that, I did not dare go in depth. Yet I explained in simple terms and images what a N.A. is for. It was like a revelation to her. She admitted that she had not been able to find anyone to clear that confusion for her. And she was disappointed to learn that the darn N.A. will not be able to fix up things fast. As in next week.
2/3 you said?
By any measure the electoral result is surprising and transcendental. The Maduro's regime has been irremediably trashed, but not ousted. And that is were the key importance of the 2 million vote resides. That the regime conceded, that it was forced to by the army to do so is not democracy. With 2 million votes ahead the armed forces were not going to support a fraud because they would have had the task to kill what was needed to kill to save the regime. In the XXI century such crimes do not prescribe and General Padrino merely voiced the concerns of the bulk of the Army: "this disaster is of the politician's own making and there is no reason why we should take the hit for that". That the army benefited immensely from the regime is, in its eyes, circumstantial: the laws and lack of supervision that allowed such corruption were of the making of the politicians.
To be or not to be sanguine about a 2/3 Assembly majority? Well, for starters, the gerrymandering operated in reverse once a threshold had been reached. Also, that 2 million surprise did not follow what had been taking place slowly: disgruntled chavistas that abstain an election or two until their conscience finally brings them to the other side. This time around too many chavistas jumped across the line outright. Too many I write because such shifts can be go back as fast as they came in. thus the first consideration on sanguinity: that 2/3 is an ephemeral, irrational result that we should not build much on it. Speaking of constitution change right now, in the face of an economic blow out is, well, maybe unwise.
The second factor on sanguinity is the reaction of the regime. All that has been written before, at least on this blog, is still valid. They are a bunch of thugs focused on personal power and wealth. That they retreated Sunday is due to the only language thugs understand: force. 2 million + vote and the refusal of the army to go along with a fraud that could not be covered up in thick make up is a language they understand. The democratic language that people got tired of them and demand at the very least an aggiornamento of their objectives is a message that so far does not seem to have reached the guilt cortex area of Maduro, Cabello, Rodriguez and most heavy weights of the regime.
I allow myself to think that a 2/3 majority will scare the beejeezuzz of these thugs in charge and push them away of any possible transition. For the opposition to defend and assume the 0,666666... means that it has to be ready to face conflict much sooner than expected. not that a 3/5 majority would be pelasing tot he regime, but it makes negotiations easier to come along.
Let's not forget one thing: there is an economy blow up coming. What we have seen in 2015 is nothing. If we do not want to starve in 2016 or die of fever because we do not even aspirin we are going to have to go hat in hand for money. The only one left that can bail us out is the IMF and there is a need to convince the executive power in the hands of chavismo to accept that reality. Imposing it just because we have a 2/3 majority is not going to do.
To close this, a personal anecdote. The cleaning lady at home came back today from having gone to vote in her village. She has been always anti Chavez even though her village has voted 80% for Chavez (it went down to 62% Sunday...). She was happy. She hopes that the new National Assembly is going to arrange things quickly because she is sick and tired of the long lines. Talking to her I realized, to my great horror, that she has no clue as to what a National Assembly job is. For her, the N.A. is kind of a guardian put in place to replace Maduro at the helm, or something like that, I did not dare go in depth. Yet I explained in simple terms and images what a N.A. is for. It was like a revelation to her. She admitted that she had not been able to find anyone to clear that confusion for her. And she was disappointed to learn that the darn N.A. will not be able to fix up things fast. As in next week.
2/3 you said?
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