Taking the over / under on Daniel Ortega's margin of victory
Greg Weeks and I spoke about Nicaragua yesterday for a Latin American podcast series that he is developing. For way too many reasons, Daniel Ortega is going to emerge victorious in the November presidential elections.
He has used his political skill to undo constitutional prohibitions on re-election. He has co-opted elements of the business class, leaving what remains of the anti-Sandinista bloc a mess. Ortega has relatively smoothly navigated the waters between the US (CAFTA-DR) and the Latin American Left (ALBA and Petrocaribe). Violent crime is relatively low. Economic growth is steady.
The Chipping away at democracy in Nicaragua (and Panama) that I wrote about in December 2012 for Al Jazeera does not seem to outweigh the positive benefits, real or imagined, Ortega has delivered. He should win running away this November.
In election-related news, Pedro Reyes dropped out of the race for the presidency this week. He is likely to be replaced by Jose del Carmen Alvarado, a 66-year-old dentist, as candidate for the Independent Liberal Party (PLI).
Reyes' pursuit of the PLI's candidacy led to the Supreme Court removing the PLI's previous leader, Eduardo Montealegre, earlier this year. That led to the collapse of the PLI coalition. When Reyes took over the party, its candidate was garnering approximately six percent of the expected presidential vote. Now that support is down to two percent, Reyes is stepping aside to dedicate his time to building the party. The maneuverings sure seem like the execution of a successful plan to destroy what was left of the PLI.
Check out the podcast here. I went with the under; Greg with the over.
He has used his political skill to undo constitutional prohibitions on re-election. He has co-opted elements of the business class, leaving what remains of the anti-Sandinista bloc a mess. Ortega has relatively smoothly navigated the waters between the US (CAFTA-DR) and the Latin American Left (ALBA and Petrocaribe). Violent crime is relatively low. Economic growth is steady.
The Chipping away at democracy in Nicaragua (and Panama) that I wrote about in December 2012 for Al Jazeera does not seem to outweigh the positive benefits, real or imagined, Ortega has delivered. He should win running away this November.
In election-related news, Pedro Reyes dropped out of the race for the presidency this week. He is likely to be replaced by Jose del Carmen Alvarado, a 66-year-old dentist, as candidate for the Independent Liberal Party (PLI).
Reyes' pursuit of the PLI's candidacy led to the Supreme Court removing the PLI's previous leader, Eduardo Montealegre, earlier this year. That led to the collapse of the PLI coalition. When Reyes took over the party, its candidate was garnering approximately six percent of the expected presidential vote. Now that support is down to two percent, Reyes is stepping aside to dedicate his time to building the party. The maneuverings sure seem like the execution of a successful plan to destroy what was left of the PLI.
Check out the podcast here. I went with the under; Greg with the over.
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