Introducing Nicaragua's old boss

Mat Youkee introduces Nicaragua's New Boss, Same as the Old Boss for Americas Quarterly. Nicaragua's election is ten day away and there is little suspense about its outcome. The FSLN's Daniel Ortega and wife Rosario Murillo look to emerge the winners with somewhere around two-thirds of the vote. Mat wonders, however, whether Ortega's electoral victory celebration will be short-lived.

But the economic conditions that allowed Ortega to play democrat, economic savior and friend to the poor are coming to an end. Across Latin America, the end of the commodity cycle and fat government revenues has created serious fiscal problems and stoked inflation, leading to the fall of “pink tide” governments in Argentina, Brazil and Peru.

Those economic headwinds are reaching Nicaraguan shores. Venezuela is cutting back cheap oil exports to the country as part of its Petrocaribe project and studies suggest the Central American nation has a $3.5 billion debt to Nicolás Maduro’s cash-strapped regime. The expected $50 billion investment in the proposed canal may never materialize given that its Chinese backer reportedly lost 80 percent of his wealth last year. By obtaining a two-thirds super majority in the coming elections, Ortega would be able to tackle tough economic times with little opposition.

There's also the question of what the United States is going to do. The Obama administration has taken a pragmatic approach to our neighbors in Central America. Governments of the right and left have problems with corruption and the lack of transparency, They are not perfect partners, nor is the United States.

However, the administration has continued to work with Morales, Sanchez Ceren, Hernandez, and Ortega over the objections of members of Congress and civil society. Engagement is its preferred policy towards the region. That shouldn't change that dramatically with a Clinton victory. However, with a Trump victory next month, all bet's are off.

Finally, here's my contribution to the article.

“Recent developments aimed at undermining the political opposition are simply a continuation of Ortega’s ongoing efforts to consolidate his control over all aspects of Nicaraguan political life - the courts, military and police, and expulsion of non-Ortega loyalists from the FSLN,” Mike Allison, a political science professor at Scranton University, told AQ.

 Chipping away at democracy in Nicaragua (and Panama).