Yes, my comandante: Nicaraguans head to the polls

Daniel Ortega will most likely cruise to victory this weekend in Nicaragua's presidential election. Anything less than sixty percent would be a true upset.

While there are real concerns about the state of democracy in Nicaragua, a victory for Ortega and his wife, Rosario Murillo, will reflect the will of the people (for what that is worth). Violent crime is low. the economy is growing and poverty rates improving. Daniel and Rosario are generally popular in the country. It doesn't hurt that they are running against an opposition that hasn't been able to get its act together. And honestly, that is more the historical norm. The anti-Sandinista faction has always from fractured.

There are going to be some real challenges in the FSLN's next term. Venezuelan support is drying up. The US Congress is looking to take a harder stance against the loss of democracy in the country. President Obama, who has been more pragmatic with regard to Nicaragua and the region, will no longer be president. There is likely to be serious fallout from the successful construction of an inter-oceanic canal or from the failed completion of that same canal. 

It also is unclear whether the population's overall acceptance of the Ortega family 's increasing financial and political power will last another term. Anti-corruption protests have rocked Guatemala and Brazil (Comparing Presidential Corruption Scandals in Guatemala and Brazil: Part 1 and Comparing Presidential Corruption Scandals in Guatemala and Brazil: Part 2). They have been less successful in El Salvador and Honduras. Nicaragua's not immune from the regional distaste for government corruption.

Check out the AP article for more of my thoughts and those of Christine Wade on Sunday's election in Nicaragua.


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