Analyzing Guatemala's homicide data
InSight Crime's Steven Dudley and a variety of collaborators investigate what Guatemala's homicide data tells us about country conditions. Unfortunately, the data is limited and not entirely helpful at uncovering underlying patterns.
While the country's murder rate has decreased for the last ten years (yay!), we don't know why exactly (boo!). There is no systematic relationship between drug trafficking networks or gang activity and variation in the murder rate at the department level (at least at a very basic level).
In the end, the team does a very good job of uncovering the difficulties of drawing any inferences about the perpetrators or their motivations. Be critical of those who blame all or most violence on gangs or drug traffickers. There's a great deal more going on in Guatemala.
While the country's murder rate has decreased for the last ten years (yay!), we don't know why exactly (boo!). There is no systematic relationship between drug trafficking networks or gang activity and variation in the murder rate at the department level (at least at a very basic level).
In the end, the team does a very good job of uncovering the difficulties of drawing any inferences about the perpetrators or their motivations. Be critical of those who blame all or most violence on gangs or drug traffickers. There's a great deal more going on in Guatemala.
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