One of the strange things about President Trump is failure to recognize that other states or people will counter his threats. They don't just jump when he says jump. Max Paul Friedman and Tom Long look at how Latin America is responding, and might respond further, to President Trump's statements and potential policy changes in the areas of immigration, trade, and security cooperation in
Policy Series: Trump and Latin America: Asymmetry and the Problem of Influence for The International Security Studies Forum.
Latin American governments need to draw and maintain their lines where it matters most. Trump lacks concrete proposals in most areas, so he will not be bound by them. Nonetheless, his publicity-obsessed id seems driven by a need to deliver visible ‘achievements,’ particularly on immigration and trade. What can be offered that looks important but hurts the least? That’s the painful question that Latin American leaders may have to answer over the next four years if they try to accommodate Trump. However, the more blatant U.S. unilateralism is, the more the United States’ leadership role will be undermined. The exercise of blunt power is likely to weaken the prospects for accommodation and increase the chances of confrontation.
Latin America has a few options in dealing with President Trump. They can give him the symbolic victories that he craves in areas they care less about. They can use a workaround - pursue their interests through the bureaucracy, Members of Congress, and the business community. Or, they can wait him out. I didn't think that waiting out President Trump was a terrific option a few weeks ago. It was risky. I'm not sure that the chaos of Washington this past week (okay, six months) changes that calculus.
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