Guatemala follows Trump to Jerusalem?

Earlier this week President Jimmy Morales announced that Guatemala would be following the United States' lead in moving its embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. It wasn't that surprising to see Guatemala announce its decision once President Trump had made his. However, cozying up to President Trump was only one of many factors that went into Morales' decision. This analysis in Haaretz seems to do a nice job of laying out some of those reasons.

President Morales wants something in return from the U.S. Guatemala would like its two million or so citizens protected from deportation. They would like investments and aid to establish conditions so that Guatemalans do not have to leave the country to live a dignified life. They would prefer to avoid some punishment for not being able or wanting to stop such migration. Morales would probably also desire the U.S.' support in reining in CICIG and Ivan Velasquez.

However, it's not clear that Morales received assurances on any of these issues from President Trump in the same way that Trump did not receive anything from Israel in return for moving the embassy. They made these decisions asks involved but without any agreement.

Guatemala's relationship with Israel exists outside of Trump. Morales is an evangelical Christian. Guatemala's evangelical Christians are overly supportive of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's vision of a united Jerusalem under Jewish control. Morales' traveled to Israel as president in November 2016. During the visit, Israel recognized Guatemala's role in its founding as a state.

The visit also highlighted the many ways in which Israel-Guatemala relations remain strong today.

During Morales’ 2016 visit, the two countries signed bilateral agreements in agriculture, science and development, with Morales stressing that he was eager to follow Israel’s example in harnessing technology to replenish the water supply of his own drought-plagued country.

Morales' trip came three years after former President Otto Perez Molina's official visit to Israel. The former general's visit reminded everyone of Israel's military support for Guatemala during the height of the Cold War and genocide in Guatemala. Israel's support came at a time when even the US had a difficult time backing the repressive Guatemalan military publicly. Israel had no such qualms.In describing Morales' recent visit, Allison Kaplar Sommer writes

Security cooperation was likely on his mind as well, because there has been a history of close military cooperation between Guatemala and Israel. It reached its peak in the 1970s and ’80s, when Israel sold Guatemala’s repressive military regime armored cars, artillery and guns, as well as supplying technicians and military advisers.

Over the years, the Jewish state became, by many accounts, Guatemala’s main source of military supplies – filling a vacuum left by the United States in 1977 when then-President Jimmy Carter distanced itself from a country it believed to be a violator of human rights, suspending military aid and financial assistance.

Israel sold weapons and defense systems to Guatemala on a larger scale in the Reagan era, helping the regime fight insurgents using Israeli-trained intelligence teams, security and communications specialists, and military training personnel in Guatemala. At the time, the human rights community looked askance at Israel using its expertise to train and help a police state repress insurgent groups and, most brutally, indigenous Mayan Indians.

Here's Otto Argueta's summary:

Since 1974, relations between Guatemala and Israel were characterized by the sale of firearms and military training. It has been reported that in 1983 there were 300 Israeli military officers working as advisers in Guatemalan security and military intelligence structures. Israeli security advisers created security systems in inland farms located in armed-conflict areas. The Israelis passed on their expertise in counterinsurgency tactics to Guatemalan military officers (Hunter 1987: 36).

Business groups also hired Israeli security advisers. As it approved to be a good business opportunity, the Israelis started PSCs offering security systems based on their war experience. After the suspension of US military aid during Carter Administration, Israel became the arms supplier of the Guatemalan Army (Hunter 1987; Kurtenbach 2008: 16).

For example, the Galil assault rifle was the official weapon of the Guatemalan Army during the internal conflict. Nowadays, Grupo Golán is the largest and oldest Israeli private security consortium in Guatemala with approximately 3,000 guards and an incalculable number of investigators and security advisers.

Israeli firms maintain important security contracts in Guatemala to this day.

I don't know if moving embassies to Jerusalem is such a wise move. However, I would not characterize Morales' decision as based solely upon his efforts to strengthen Guatemala's relationship with the United States and President Trump.