Numeral inconsistencies
While the opposition logistic mess (so far this is what we see) may or may not prove electoral fraud (that fraud exists from before election day, so there is electoral fraud no matter what) we can only look at some glaring inconsistencies.
Voter participation
This means that the regime pulled 5.5 million and the opposition 4.8 million votes.
The problem here is that the regime claimed 8+ million on july 30. At least 2.5 million are missing. Is that the extent of the electoral fraud on July 30? Some may claim that Caracas, not having a governor, did not vote. But that also applies to the opposition.
As for this one, it claimed on July 14 7+ million. So at least 2.5 are missing. Is this the size of the abstention? Is this the potential for, say, Maria corina Machado?
Clearly, we have a few liars somewhere. Or is it that the regime transformed outright some opposition votes into regime votes. Can this be proved? I doubt it, even it did actually happen. Which I think it did but that is another story.
Past vote
The opposition got around 2 million votes more in 2015. That is, say, 7 million. And yet the regime did get yesterday about what it got in 2015.
How is this possible since the country is in much worse shape than it was 2 years ago? Is the protest abstention really that strong?
We need to look into that abstention a little bit more closely, as much as in fact as to its motivation.
Polls
I am not putting my head to chop here. I have doubted often pollsters on Venezuela because there is, among other things, too much blackmail on the chavista voter.
However I have read that all serious pollsters predicted a rather large opposition victory. This did not happen. Pollsters were dead wrong. Or where they? Apparently they predicted the participation number. So, they got one and not the other?
So?
These are enough food for thought. Actual details of an eventual fraud are something else. But it remains that the opposition need to do some soul searching because this "defeat" cannot be blamed exclusively on abstention. The opposition MUD was clearly NOT PREPARED for these elections. We saw that pitifully last night and today (so far).
Voter participation
En voto nacional: 5.571.859 Psuv y 4.853.353 MUD. Diferencia de 719.506 votos (y 2,2 millones menos para la oposición en comparación a 2015)— Eugenio G. Martínez (@puzkas) October 16, 2017
This means that the regime pulled 5.5 million and the opposition 4.8 million votes.
The problem here is that the regime claimed 8+ million on july 30. At least 2.5 million are missing. Is that the extent of the electoral fraud on July 30? Some may claim that Caracas, not having a governor, did not vote. But that also applies to the opposition.
As for this one, it claimed on July 14 7+ million. So at least 2.5 are missing. Is this the size of the abstention? Is this the potential for, say, Maria corina Machado?
Clearly, we have a few liars somewhere. Or is it that the regime transformed outright some opposition votes into regime votes. Can this be proved? I doubt it, even it did actually happen. Which I think it did but that is another story.
Past vote
The opposition got around 2 million votes more in 2015. That is, say, 7 million. And yet the regime did get yesterday about what it got in 2015.
How is this possible since the country is in much worse shape than it was 2 years ago? Is the protest abstention really that strong?
We need to look into that abstention a little bit more closely, as much as in fact as to its motivation.
Polls
I am not putting my head to chop here. I have doubted often pollsters on Venezuela because there is, among other things, too much blackmail on the chavista voter.
However I have read that all serious pollsters predicted a rather large opposition victory. This did not happen. Pollsters were dead wrong. Or where they? Apparently they predicted the participation number. So, they got one and not the other?
So?
These are enough food for thought. Actual details of an eventual fraud are something else. But it remains that the opposition need to do some soul searching because this "defeat" cannot be blamed exclusively on abstention. The opposition MUD was clearly NOT PREPARED for these elections. We saw that pitifully last night and today (so far).
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