Guatemala's congress: 2016-2020
In June, I speculated which political parties were likely to benefit from the Patriotic Party's (PP) self-inflicted implosion in Guatemala. I thought that it would help Lider to a certain extent. However, the party only hurt itself by moving closer to the PP through the summer. In the end, Baldizon will not advance to a runoff after coming up a few votes short for second place. He subsequently withdrew his candidacy rather than challenge the results. While Lider will not advance to the presidency, the party will have the largest legislative bloc in the next Congress with 44 seats.
After being incorrect that UNE would likely to disappear following the 2011 disaster, I thought that it might benefit from the PP's loss and actually sneak into October's second round. Sandra Torres did just that. She still has an uphill battle to defeat Jimmy Morales in the second round. UNE is in a good position with 36 seats allotted to it in the next Congress. It still has the opportunity to emerge as a long-term option of the social democratic left in Guatemala but we'll have to see it to believe it.
I also thought that some of the smaller political parties would benefit from the PP's loss. Amilcar Pop's Frente Amplio and Nineth Montenegro's EG had been the public face of Congress's attacks against Otto Perez Molina. They were likely to capitalize electorally. As of September 19th, it appears that the EG captured 7 seats with over 6 percent of the vote and the URNG/Frente Amplio three seats with over 4 percent of the vote. The URNG/Frente Amplio had a nice jump in electoral support even if it didn't necessarily translate into more seats. While they performed relatively well, they made no inroads at becoming viable players for the presidency. The EG captured less than 1 percent of the vote and the Frente Amplio its usual 2 percent.
The FCN? In my blind spot. I didn't think that this party of former military veterans led by a comic was one to consider that seriously until the end. My focus was on the PP, Lider, and UNE. Instead, Jimmy Morales and the FCN took the first round and are the favorites for October's runoff. They didn't perform nearly as well in elections for the Congress, 11 seats with almost 9 percent of the vote. Of course the way Guatemala operates, the FCN will probably begin the next Congress with double or more seats than it won in September.
After being incorrect that UNE would likely to disappear following the 2011 disaster, I thought that it might benefit from the PP's loss and actually sneak into October's second round. Sandra Torres did just that. She still has an uphill battle to defeat Jimmy Morales in the second round. UNE is in a good position with 36 seats allotted to it in the next Congress. It still has the opportunity to emerge as a long-term option of the social democratic left in Guatemala but we'll have to see it to believe it.
I also thought that some of the smaller political parties would benefit from the PP's loss. Amilcar Pop's Frente Amplio and Nineth Montenegro's EG had been the public face of Congress's attacks against Otto Perez Molina. They were likely to capitalize electorally. As of September 19th, it appears that the EG captured 7 seats with over 6 percent of the vote and the URNG/Frente Amplio three seats with over 4 percent of the vote. The URNG/Frente Amplio had a nice jump in electoral support even if it didn't necessarily translate into more seats. While they performed relatively well, they made no inroads at becoming viable players for the presidency. The EG captured less than 1 percent of the vote and the Frente Amplio its usual 2 percent.
The FCN? In my blind spot. I didn't think that this party of former military veterans led by a comic was one to consider that seriously until the end. My focus was on the PP, Lider, and UNE. Instead, Jimmy Morales and the FCN took the first round and are the favorites for October's runoff. They didn't perform nearly as well in elections for the Congress, 11 seats with almost 9 percent of the vote. Of course the way Guatemala operates, the FCN will probably begin the next Congress with double or more seats than it won in September.
Post a Comment