Ouster and arrest does not guarantee a long-term transformation of Guatemalan politics

I have a post up at Warscapes entitled Guatemala's Fight to End Impunity.

As the protests make clear, many Guatemalans are outraged and disappointed that the president and vice president—which the people had voted into power just four years ago—allegedly took advantage of their positions to enrich themselves and their allies. However, the people's determination over the last several months through weekly demonstrations, as well as dogged work of the public prosecutor’s office and CICIG, gives the country an opportunity to overcome a legacy of corruption and an unresponsive political system. Perez's ouster and arrest does not guarantee a long-term transformation of Guatemalan politics, but it is a step forward in undoing decades of impunity and in strengthening the rule of law.

No matter who emerges in next month’s electoral run-off, the challenges ahead will be significant. Jimmy Morales is a political newcomer whose political party was founded by former right-wing military officers linked to the country’s genocidal counterinsurgency program. Manuel Baldizon has systematically violated campaign finance laws while his vice presidential candidate, Edgar Barquin, has been publicly linked to money laundering networks. Sandra Torres’ party, for its part, has been linked to drug traffickers and former military officers as well, and her husband’s administration was allegedly involved in politicizing many of their social programs that were meant to assist poor Guatemalans. Given these realities, the Public Prosecutor, CICIG and the people of Guatemala will need to remain vigilant for the next four years in order to ensure that recent progress continues.

Manuel Baldizon has dropped out since the post was originally written and submitted. However, the takeaway still holds. Do not put too much faith in the executive branch to lead change in Guatemala. Is this ideal? Of course not. However, I am still optimistic that the change begun under Alvaro Colom and Otto Perez, really in spite of them, can continue under Morales or Torres.