The 2015 results: general
Now that the CNE has finally announced the final result we can start more detailed analysis. They will be interesting and I will have a few posts on that through the next couple of weeks. Stay tuned. But first an evaluation of my own predictions.
The CNE does not publish vote count as too embarrassing for the regime, You could be sure that had the PSUV won the election, the vote count would be posted. Never mind, there are people that do so and there is a tweet on this matter:
My predictions were as follow:
"So I am going to go with 96 seats and 16% more votes for MUD than for PSUV. Why not? As crazy as any other prediction to be found around. My optimist outcome is 18% ahead with 101 and my pessimist is 13% with 92."
I got the seats wrong but I got the spread right: 56.2-40,8 = 15,4.
I did not get the seats right because against my own instincts I had a general shift in voting pattern across the country when in fact that pattern was less than even. A stupid mistake for more opposition leaning areas even though I did give them less shift than elsewhere, but not enough. Thus the bonus seats for the opposition. An error that delights me, by the way.
At any rate, predicting the MUD-PSUV difference that close makes me quite happy. My reasons not to buy into the optimism of most pollsters was right, my knowledge of the electoral map remained sound even if weaker than for previous election due to lack of time for proper study and update. {end of back patting}
A good basis for guessing atr the next presidential election, sooner than what you may expect.... and governor due December 2016.
The CNE does not publish vote count as too embarrassing for the regime, You could be sure that had the PSUV won the election, the vote count would be posted. Never mind, there are people that do so and there is a tweet on this matter:
MUD 7.707.422 votos (56,2%) y 112 dip (67%) / Psuv 5.599.025 (40,8%) votos y 55 dip (32,93%) El sistema chavista de 2010 benefició a la MUD
— Eugenio G. MartÃnez (@puzkas) December 8, 2015
That is self explanatory. The comment means that the gerrymandering in the end benefited the MUD, a normal occurrence as gerrymandering is designed to protect low votes but when the votes become too important in the other side then it backfires.My predictions were as follow:
"So I am going to go with 96 seats and 16% more votes for MUD than for PSUV. Why not? As crazy as any other prediction to be found around. My optimist outcome is 18% ahead with 101 and my pessimist is 13% with 92."
I got the seats wrong but I got the spread right: 56.2-40,8 = 15,4.
I did not get the seats right because against my own instincts I had a general shift in voting pattern across the country when in fact that pattern was less than even. A stupid mistake for more opposition leaning areas even though I did give them less shift than elsewhere, but not enough. Thus the bonus seats for the opposition. An error that delights me, by the way.
At any rate, predicting the MUD-PSUV difference that close makes me quite happy. My reasons not to buy into the optimism of most pollsters was right, my knowledge of the electoral map remained sound even if weaker than for previous election due to lack of time for proper study and update. {end of back patting}
A good basis for guessing atr the next presidential election, sooner than what you may expect.... and governor due December 2016.
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