Questions about a Trump administration's policies towards Latin America
Quite a night in the United States. I was thinking about the same things as Greg. What does a Trump victory mean for US policy towards Latin America?
Greg's first two points look at the negative effects of Trump's victory on Mexico's economy, especially along the border. I guess I would say that the US and Mexico (and Canada) will be hurt by efforts to significantly unwind NAFTA. Our economies have become so integrated that the consequences will be severe indeed. The consequences will be felt not just in Mexico, but the United States.
With regard to the border, Trump's vision of a more militarized border with more and higher walls will help US security and infrastructure companies. However, those businesses on both sides of the border engaged in cross border trade might be severely damaged. That's why border communities in the US generally have been anti-wall.
I am pro-human rights, pro-democracy, and pro-free trade. Greg is right that Trump will most likely appoint individuals to key positions related to Latin America that will take a harder-line towards the region that the relatively pragmatic Obama administration. I would like to see Trump appoint pro-human rights, pro-democracy, and pro-free trade to key posts but I fear that he will appoint hardliners who are simply "anti-leftist." That has potentially harmful implications for governments in El Salvador and Nicaragua. They will most likely be held to more difficult standards than the governments of Honduras and Guatemala.
I do wonder whether the US and Cuba have made such progress towards normalization that efforts to undo those reforms will fail. The US public has moved towards normalization. And Trump will probably see the economic benefits of continued reform.
Trump's statements have been filled with racist, sexist, and xenophobic hatred. However, I don't think (hope?) that's motivating many of his supporters. But I wouldn't be surprised if hate attacks against Latinos and other minorities increase.
Venezuela remains a mess. I don't see President-elect Trump rallying a regional coalition to help resolve the crisis peacefully. I'm not sure a Clinton administration would have been successful on the point either.
The Democratic Party's policies and rhetoric towards Latinos and immigrants has not been great. Better than the Republican Party but not great. Latino Americans generally care about the same issues that all Americans do. However, in terms of finding a way to pass comprehensive immigration reform and address rising crime and corruption in Mexico and Central America, the administration has failed.
I'm pretty sure that Greg meant that comprehensive immigration reform is dead, not simply that immigration reform is dead. I hope that is not true but it is really difficult to envision a Trump administration brokering an agreement that included a path to citizenship for millions of people in the US living without proper authorization. There will probably be more spending on the border, regardless of whether it will have the desired effect. The deportation of larger numbers of people is possible but given how many we deport regularly right now, difficult to surpass. I could see some push for more work visas being part of a comprehensive reform.
In addition to these issues Greg touched on, I wonder whether Trump's anger towards NAFTA will extend to free trade deals will DR-CAFTA, Colombia, Chile, Panama, and Peru. Perhaps they are not as significant as to upset.
What implications does a Trump victory have for peace in Colombia? A comprehensive peace agreement similar to the one defeated in last month's referendum seems elusive.
It has been really difficult to push for a more comprehensive US approach to Central American security issues. That job just got more difficult. Perhaps marijuana initiatives and Trump's "business acumen" will lead him to support the legalization of marijuana and other illegal drugs.
There's a lot of uncertainty following yesterday's election, especially in to US policy towards Latin America. We will see whether the US bureaucracy will be able to restrain the worst vices of the president-elect or whether he himself, once he has seriously thought about the issues, will come to a reasoned response.
Greg's first two points look at the negative effects of Trump's victory on Mexico's economy, especially along the border. I guess I would say that the US and Mexico (and Canada) will be hurt by efforts to significantly unwind NAFTA. Our economies have become so integrated that the consequences will be severe indeed. The consequences will be felt not just in Mexico, but the United States.
With regard to the border, Trump's vision of a more militarized border with more and higher walls will help US security and infrastructure companies. However, those businesses on both sides of the border engaged in cross border trade might be severely damaged. That's why border communities in the US generally have been anti-wall.
I am pro-human rights, pro-democracy, and pro-free trade. Greg is right that Trump will most likely appoint individuals to key positions related to Latin America that will take a harder-line towards the region that the relatively pragmatic Obama administration. I would like to see Trump appoint pro-human rights, pro-democracy, and pro-free trade to key posts but I fear that he will appoint hardliners who are simply "anti-leftist." That has potentially harmful implications for governments in El Salvador and Nicaragua. They will most likely be held to more difficult standards than the governments of Honduras and Guatemala.
I do wonder whether the US and Cuba have made such progress towards normalization that efforts to undo those reforms will fail. The US public has moved towards normalization. And Trump will probably see the economic benefits of continued reform.
Trump's statements have been filled with racist, sexist, and xenophobic hatred. However, I don't think (hope?) that's motivating many of his supporters. But I wouldn't be surprised if hate attacks against Latinos and other minorities increase.
Venezuela remains a mess. I don't see President-elect Trump rallying a regional coalition to help resolve the crisis peacefully. I'm not sure a Clinton administration would have been successful on the point either.
The Democratic Party's policies and rhetoric towards Latinos and immigrants has not been great. Better than the Republican Party but not great. Latino Americans generally care about the same issues that all Americans do. However, in terms of finding a way to pass comprehensive immigration reform and address rising crime and corruption in Mexico and Central America, the administration has failed.
I'm pretty sure that Greg meant that comprehensive immigration reform is dead, not simply that immigration reform is dead. I hope that is not true but it is really difficult to envision a Trump administration brokering an agreement that included a path to citizenship for millions of people in the US living without proper authorization. There will probably be more spending on the border, regardless of whether it will have the desired effect. The deportation of larger numbers of people is possible but given how many we deport regularly right now, difficult to surpass. I could see some push for more work visas being part of a comprehensive reform.
In addition to these issues Greg touched on, I wonder whether Trump's anger towards NAFTA will extend to free trade deals will DR-CAFTA, Colombia, Chile, Panama, and Peru. Perhaps they are not as significant as to upset.
What implications does a Trump victory have for peace in Colombia? A comprehensive peace agreement similar to the one defeated in last month's referendum seems elusive.
It has been really difficult to push for a more comprehensive US approach to Central American security issues. That job just got more difficult. Perhaps marijuana initiatives and Trump's "business acumen" will lead him to support the legalization of marijuana and other illegal drugs.
There's a lot of uncertainty following yesterday's election, especially in to US policy towards Latin America. We will see whether the US bureaucracy will be able to restrain the worst vices of the president-elect or whether he himself, once he has seriously thought about the issues, will come to a reasoned response.
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