Fewer homicides in Central America's Northern Triangle
According to official statistics, homicides were down all around Central America's Northern Triangle. In Honduras, the government says that the country's murder rate decreased by more than 25 percent in 2017 to end the year at 42.8 killings per 100,000 people. The Salvadoran government claims that its murder rate fell to 60.8 per 100,000 people. They credit better police strategies and prison reform for bringing the rate down from 104 in 2015 to where it is today. Finally, Guatemala achieved another year over year decrease in its homicide rate. The murder rate fell to 26.1 per 100,000 people - the lowest rate in 18 years.
Lower murder rates should be welcome news to the people of the region. However, insecurity remains high. Citizens do not feel safer. They do not trust government supplied statistics. And, at least in Honduras and El Salvador, the lower rates have perhaps come as a result of more aggressive policing. The aggressive policing has caused increased conflict between security forces and citizens, not just security forces and gang members.
It's not clear how sustainable these statistical improvements are. However, that's what I said about Guatemala. After five or so years of decreased homicide rates, I didn't think that they would go any lower until there were significant improvements to the country's economic, political, and social structures. However, Guatemala has proved me wrong. There's been some improvement in the country's security institutions but poverty has increased and the political system remains a mess. In spite of it all, it's murder rate is back to where it was in 2000 (25.9).
I can't help but think that the U.S. government might use these statistics to argue that Honduras and El Salvador no longer need Temporary Protected Status (TPS). They would be wrong. The murder rate in Honduras is still 4 times what the World Health Organization considers to be an epidemic of violence. And El Salvador's rate is 6 times what is considered to be epidemic. Termination of TPS will most likely reverse some of the progress made in 2017.
Lower murder rates should be welcome news to the people of the region. However, insecurity remains high. Citizens do not feel safer. They do not trust government supplied statistics. And, at least in Honduras and El Salvador, the lower rates have perhaps come as a result of more aggressive policing. The aggressive policing has caused increased conflict between security forces and citizens, not just security forces and gang members.
It's not clear how sustainable these statistical improvements are. However, that's what I said about Guatemala. After five or so years of decreased homicide rates, I didn't think that they would go any lower until there were significant improvements to the country's economic, political, and social structures. However, Guatemala has proved me wrong. There's been some improvement in the country's security institutions but poverty has increased and the political system remains a mess. In spite of it all, it's murder rate is back to where it was in 2000 (25.9).
I can't help but think that the U.S. government might use these statistics to argue that Honduras and El Salvador no longer need Temporary Protected Status (TPS). They would be wrong. The murder rate in Honduras is still 4 times what the World Health Organization considers to be an epidemic of violence. And El Salvador's rate is 6 times what is considered to be epidemic. Termination of TPS will most likely reverse some of the progress made in 2017.
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