Guerrilla vs. businessman formula offered by the FMLN and ARENA is a tired one

Who were the winners and losers of El Salvador's March 4 elections and what can those results tell us about next year's presidential election? Christine Wade answers your questions in the World Politics Review.

Many have speculated that the legislative elections were a preview of the presidential election scheduled for March 2019. If so, trends would suggest that both of El Salvador’s major parties are in trouble. Less than a week after the elections, Bukele was already drawing huge crowds at a campaign rally in rural Chalatenango and had launched a website for his new political party, Nuevas Ideas. When asked if they would support Bukele for president on a ticket other than the FMLN, 60 percent of respondents to the IUDOP said they would. While Bukele’s critics are quick to point out that he doesn’t possess any clear ideology or that he is, perhaps, more concerned with his own image than the business of governing, his supporters point to a range of projects that address social problems in creative ways.

The current frontrunner for the FMLN nomination is Gerson Martinez, another former guerrilla and long-serving deputy in the legislative assembly. Martinez was minister of public works for Funes and, until recently, Sanchez Ceren. Widely considered to be thoughtful, competent and honest by many who know him—including this author—the 64-year-old Martinez nevertheless represents the old FMLN to many voters who see Bukele as its future. ARENA will hold its presidential primary next month, though the frontrunners are all wealthy businessmen who haven’t held elected office. Among the most prominent is U.S.-educated businessman and attorney Javier Siman, who seeks to pull together voters who he claims “do not feel represented by any political party.”

But for too many Salvadoran voters, the guerrilla vs. businessman formula offered by the FMLN and ARENAS is a tired one. Growing disenchantment with politics as usual indicates that Salvadorans are searching for new leadership, a new path forward and—if Nayib Bukele has any say in the matter—new ideas.

In speaking with some longtime FMLN supporters, no matter their disenchantment with Sanchez Ceren and FMLN politicians they would have a hard time ever voting for ARENA. They are more likely to stay home or vote Bukele in 2019.