Giammattei wins in Guatemala (Aug. 12, 2019)

Alejandro Giammattei won Guatemala's presidency yesterday with nearly 58 percent of the vote. Just 38 percent of the electorate bothered to cast votes in the run-off election yesterday, the lowest participation since the 1996 peace accord was signed, reports Nómada. Disenchantment with the election is particularly marked: voter participation in the 2015 second round was over 56 percent. It's the end of an electoral race marked by notable voter disenchantment after judges blocked the two most popular candidates from participating in the first round, report El País and the Wall Street Journal.

Giammattei, a former national prison system director and fourth-time presidential candidate, faced off against former first lady Sandra Torres. He benefitted from a high rate of voter rejection against Torres, who is accused of corruption and illicit campaign financing in her 2015 presidential run. Giammattei will assume office on January 14, 2020. (Al Jazeera) Not that Giammattei has a sparkling record: he was charged, jailed and then cleared over numerous extrajudicial killings during his time as director of prisons, reports the Guardian. Analysts note that Torres' high rate of voter rejection also catapulted current President Jimmy Morales into office in 2015. (Infobae)

Giammattei's campaign promised tough on crime policies, and has raised human rights groups' hackles. (See last Friday's post on campaign platforms.) He said he would back a bill declaring gang members "terrorists" so that if imprisoned they would have no right to conjugal visits and would be forced to work in jail, reports BBC. He opposes gay marriage and abortion and endorses family values and the death penalty, reports CBS.

Giammattei made no reference to corruption in his victory speech yesterday, notes the New York Times. In recent years Guatemala has been emblematic of the fight against corruption, thanks to the collaborative efforts of a U.N. backed international anti-impunity commission (CICIG) and its public ministry. But current president Jimmy Morales has systematically dismantled the commission and undermined corruption investigations, with the assistance of lawmakers who have sought to shield themselves. Giammattei confirmed yesterday that he will not ask the U.N. to extend the CICIG's mandate (which expires next month) and has proposed no reforms -- he represents a respite for Guatemala's system of entrenched corruption, writes Martín Rodríguez Pellecer in Nómada. He is backed by the same network of elites that supported Morales' attacks on the CICIG, reports the Guardian.

Though corruption was a significant issue in the first round of elections, anti-graft crusader Thelma Aldana was prevented from running, and migration dominated headlines in the second round. (AFP)

Giammattei will inherit a particularly controversial migration deal with the U.S. -- which could be in effect by the time he assumes office. The safe third country deal would force migrants passing through Guatemala to apply for humanitarian asylum there rather than in the U.S., and could overwhelm Guatemala's rudimentary refugee system. (See Aug. 2's post.) Giammattei told Reuters yesterday that he hopes the deal could be improved during the transition period. But the situation is difficult for Guatemala. The pact is wildly unpopular among Guatemalans -- 82 percent rejection according to one poll -- but Guatemala could suffer retaliation for backtracking. The U.S. Trump administration threatened Guatemala with tariffs and taxes on remittances if the migration agreement was not signed. (See July 29's post.) The agreement faces legal challenges in Guatemala and the U.S. (Washington Post)

Giammattei will have an uphill battle in Congress, where just 17 out of 158 lawmakers belong to his Vamos party.

----------------------------

Argentine opposition thrashes incumbent in primaries

An opposition coalition led by Peronist Alberto Fernández trounced President Mauricio Macri in an open primary vote yesterday that serves as an indicator of voter preferences ahead of October's general election. Fernández, whose running-mate is former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, defied expectations and obtained 47.66 percent of the vote. Macri, who is running for reelection, performed significantly worst than polls predicted, with 32.09 percent. A third candidate, considered an alternative option, Roberto Lavagna, obtained just 8.23 percent. (La Nación)

As generally occurs in Argentina, none of the main coalitions presented alternative candidates for the primaries.

Macri admitted defeat last night ahead of the release of preliminary results indicating a major rout. “We had a bad election,” he said to supporters. (Wall Street Journal)

Fernández struck a conciliatory tone in his victory speech, nodding towards voters who had not supported him and promising that his government wouldn't engage in "crazy" measures. It's not clear whether he will be able to calm panicky investors and voters who fear a return to heterodox Kirchner policies. In an interview today he promised to honor debts, apparently a pledge not to default, but said payment required economic growth. (Página 12) The electoral results led to a (predictable) massive market upset this morning -- the peso weakened about 25% against the dollar in early trading. (Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg)

Economic recession pushed voters to reject the leader they (sort of) embraced just four years ago -- austerity measures have drained a public that was at one point open to Macri's promise of change. (BBC) Though foreign investors were excited by his pro-market policies in 2015, voters were motivated more by exhaustion with the previous 12 years of Kirchner governments, writes Benjamin Gedan at NPR.

Indeed, the results demonstrate the limits of Macri's main argument: that Fernández represents a return to a dark past. Voters instead opted to send the message that the present is intolerable, writes Martín Caparrós in a New York Times Español op-ed.

Not a single poll indicated these results, indeed, a last minute private poll on Friday that indicated a tie led markets to rally on Friday. Many analysts say pollsters will have to change models if they plan to retain relevance in the rest of the campaign.

Polarization, which has characterized Argentina's political scene since the Kirchner governments was considerably less marked than expected. And Fernández heralded the end of the "grieta" -- the metaphorical fissure that has defined the unbridgeable differences between Kirchner's supporters and Macri's. 

Market volatility will almost certainly impact October's election. The general election is Oct. 27. There is a second round if the leading candidate does not surpass 45 percent or 40 percent with more than a 10 point difference with the second place candidate. If yesterday's results hold, Fernández could win in the first round -- but two months in Argentina is a long time.

News Briefs

ICE air

• U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement currently sends about nine airplanes of deportees to Guatemala per week -- a number that could rise to 20 under the safe third country agreement, reports the Washington Post.

Victims of Remain in Mexico

• Since U.S. authorities began sending asylum seekers to Mexico to await the hearings, the so-called Remain in Mexico policy, Human Rights First has catalogued 110 “cases of rape, kidnapping, sexual exploitation, assault, and other violent crimes” against asylum seekers sent back to Mexico under the program. (Washington Post)

MACCIH under fire

• Honduran lawmakers are threatening to discontinue the MACCIH, an OAS funded anti-graft commission that has filed charges against powerful congressmen, ex-ministers and a former first lady -- and has another 20 ongoing investigations that target members of current and past administrations, reports the Wall Street Journal.

Potential Venezuela crackdown

• Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó warned that the government plans to shut down the opposition led National Assembly, move forward parliamentary elections, and persecute opposition lawmakers. The measures could start today. (Efecto Cocuyo)

• Venezuelan human rights defender Tamara Sujú asked the U.K. to pressure the international criminal court (ICC) to pursue a case against the Maduro government in Venezuela, reports the Guardian.

It's the algorithm

• You Tube's search and recommendation system systematically diverted users to far-right and conspiracy channels in Brazil, and played a key role in President Jair Bolsonaro's election last year, according to a New York Times investigation. The effects have impacted Brazilians' daily lives in surprising ways: students who were encouraged to secretly record their teachers, medical misinformation that hampered government efforts to fight diseases, and electoral victory by a wave of right-wing YouTube stars.

• The Brazilian case is an example of the broader implications of the internet’s growing role as a force for radicalization, explains the New York Times separately.

Martinelli cleared

• A judge found former Panamanian president Ricardo Martinelli not guilty of political espionage. Martinelli was accused of spying on 150 people, including politicians, union leaders and journalists during his administration, and prosecutors sought a 21-year jail sentence. But they failed to prove their theory, said the judge, who ordered the former president released from prison. (Reuters, Associated Press)

Testing alternative subheads for briefs, consider it a work in progress ... Thoughts? Let me know ...

Latin America Daily Briefing