Friday morning reading
Several good reports out there on the Northern Triangle to get you going this morning. Christine Wade takes a nuanced approach to explaining political, social, and economic developments of the last decade or so with Revolutionary Drift: Power and Pragmatism in Ortega's Nicaragua for the World Politics Review.
The FSLN has been able to balance these relations rather well. They've taken advantage of ALBA, Petrocaribe, and CAFTA-DR. It's unclear how the FMLN will do. There were several battles over changes to the public-private partnership law in El Salvador that was needed for passage of the second MCC compact. Part of the second compact seemed to be headed for the modernization of the country's airport, but now it looks like a Chinese business is going to do it (as well as other projects).
The Obama administration seems to take the diversification of these countries' relations in stride. Whether strengthening trade and political relations with these countries is beneficial for the Nicaragua and El Salvador remains to be seem and whether the US will react so casually if Republicans capture the White House in 2016 is doubtful.
The key take away seems to be that the Ortega's seem to have weakened the country's already week democratic institutions, but they remain popular for having delivered economic and social progress for the people of Nicaragua. Whether their model will continue successfully past the 2016 elections is a question up for debate.
In Is El Salvador Losing the Fight Against Gangs? for the Inter-American Dialogue's Latin America Advisor, Hector Silva Avalos, Gavin Strong, Christine Wade, and Jose Miguel Cruz all agree that the answer is yes. However, they would seem to agree that you just can't blame the FMLN. It's a failure of ARENA and all other Salvadoran political actors as well as the US.
Finally, although I haven't gotten around to reading it, Sarah Hunt takes a look at Breaking the Rules, Breaking the Game: External Ideas, Politics and Inclusive Development in Honduras.
Thirty-six years after the 1979 revolution that overthrew the entrenched Somoza dynasty, Nicaraguans still fill Plaza La Fe in Managua to celebrate Liberation Day festivities every July 19. While to some it may look like an exercise in grand nostalgia, supporters of the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) and President Daniel Ortega view the revolution as an ongoing process. Yet some question how far the current administration has drifted from the guiding principles of the revolution and claim he is building a dynasty of his own.It's a great read. The FSLN's diversification of its international partners (ALBA and CAFTA-DR, Russia, China, Venezuela, etc.) is exactly what the FMLN seeks. While I think that some FMLN might be more than happy to trade their dependence on the US for dependence on Venezuela, they believe that ship might have sailed with Venezuela's implosion. Plus, it's not so easy for the FMLN to disentangle itself from the US because of all the links that we share - family, trade, security, etc.
The FSLN has been able to balance these relations rather well. They've taken advantage of ALBA, Petrocaribe, and CAFTA-DR. It's unclear how the FMLN will do. There were several battles over changes to the public-private partnership law in El Salvador that was needed for passage of the second MCC compact. Part of the second compact seemed to be headed for the modernization of the country's airport, but now it looks like a Chinese business is going to do it (as well as other projects).
The Obama administration seems to take the diversification of these countries' relations in stride. Whether strengthening trade and political relations with these countries is beneficial for the Nicaragua and El Salvador remains to be seem and whether the US will react so casually if Republicans capture the White House in 2016 is doubtful.
The key take away seems to be that the Ortega's seem to have weakened the country's already week democratic institutions, but they remain popular for having delivered economic and social progress for the people of Nicaragua. Whether their model will continue successfully past the 2016 elections is a question up for debate.
In Is El Salvador Losing the Fight Against Gangs? for the Inter-American Dialogue's Latin America Advisor, Hector Silva Avalos, Gavin Strong, Christine Wade, and Jose Miguel Cruz all agree that the answer is yes. However, they would seem to agree that you just can't blame the FMLN. It's a failure of ARENA and all other Salvadoran political actors as well as the US.
Finally, although I haven't gotten around to reading it, Sarah Hunt takes a look at Breaking the Rules, Breaking the Game: External Ideas, Politics and Inclusive Development in Honduras.
The rise of the new Left has had an important impact on the politics of poverty reduction in Central America, upsetting the status quo for elites in the case of Honduras. After Hurricane Mitch in 1998, international pressure on elites to focus on poverty reduction had only a limited effect. But from 2006, the availability of aid and other resources from Venezuela facilitated a break with donor-sponsored agendas and heralded a new phase in the politics of poverty reduction. Then, in 2009, a coup against Liberal President Manuel Zelaya was precipitated by his ‘shift left’ whilst in office. This crisis unfastened the apparent stability and long-standing norms of Honduran political life. Drawing on recent fieldwork, this paper uses a political settlements approach to analyse the commitment and capacity to address social policy issues in Honduras through this period. The paper considers the significance and impact of external ideas on the changing distribution of power in society, and the implications for inclusive development.
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